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      Gemewizard archive daily article










  A vivid swing halted, a new swing begins?

by Gemewizard team
July 17, 2012


In the May 2012 issue of our Gem Color Report, we inspected price trends of yellow colored diamonds. The analysis then pointed to nominal price increases for Fancy Light, Fancy and Fancy Intense grades, while Fancy Vivid yellow prices showed a decrease of 1.99%.

In actuality, the Fancy Vivid results indicated a changing trend, from a continuous and sharp incline during the previous five-month period to that of a slight decline. This led us to wonder whether the decline was a market correction related to the earlier holiday season price increases, or whether it was a first sign of a sustained downward slide.

To examine the premise, we decided this month to revisit the fancy yellow colored diamonds and examine whether the tendencies we noted in May have endured or perhaps a new behavior has since occurred.

We collected the data from our database on July 1, 2012, to include 1.00 ct. to 1.99 cts. of yellow colored diamonds, each supported by a GIA certificate. We then sorted the information according to fancy grades from Fancy Light to Fancy Vivid and calculated the average price for each. Next, we compared the current price averages with the equivalent averages from May 1, 2012, to evaluate the difference from the past two months. To ensure that we would be relating to a general trend, rather than one concentrated within a specific weight group (1.00 to 1.99 cts.), we included in the sample other weight groups, ranging from 0.50 to 4.99 cts.

The analysis results of the 1.00-1.99 cts. weight group are displayed in Figure 1. They show that Fancy Light, Fancy and Fancy Intense grades have decreased slightly from two months ago by 0.42%, 0.90%, and 0.95% respectively. The price of Fancy Vivid yellow, which declined in May, remained flat.

The resultant numbers were then rechecked and compared against the other weight groups as displayed in Figure 2. The comparison showed a mixed tendency. While the 0.50-0.99, 1.00-1.49, 1.50-1.99 and 3.00-4.99 cts. weight groups showed slight but insignificant increases or decreases of up to 1%, the 2.00-2.99 cts. weight group fell sharply by 3.39%. This dramatic change encouraged us to check this group thoroughly. Looking more deeply into the records, we learned that the decrease in prices occurred for all the grades except Fancy Vivid, which again remained at a flat 0.00% from May.

With the exception of the 2.00-2.99 cts. weight group, the analysis provides some support to one of our assumptions, and this is that the market is relaxing and beginning to stabilize. The Fancy Light, Fancy and Fancy Intense grades' prices keep fluctuating gently up and down by up to 1%. The Fancy Vivid prices, which experienced sharp increases a few months ago, are eventually settling down after a small decrease.

The 2.00-2.99 cts. results were a surprise. The decline could be a result of several factors. So, before jumping to any conclusions, we would need to monitor the trend over the coming few months to see whether this is a sustained behavior or a transient occurrence that may correct itself in the near future.

We shall keep watching and will continue to update you from time to time. Stay tuned.

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